This paper was edited by Hailong Wang and reviewed by two anonymous referees. ERFari+aci is approximately 22 % from ERFari and 78 % from ERFaci and is comprised of an SW contribution of −1.26 W m−2 offset by a LW contribution of +0.23 W m−2. The total derived cloud adjustment for aerosols is −0.20 W m−2, derived of −0.04 W m−2 from SW cloud liquid water path adjustment, −0.13 W m−2 from SW cloud fraction change and −0.03 W m−2 from cloud changes in the LW (Table S7). Samset, B., Shawki, D., Shindell, D., Takemura, T., and Voulgarakis, A.: (2020) show that ERF_reg150 for 4×CO2 also increases in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 and attribute 20 % of the increase in multi-model mean effective climate sensitivity (ECS) in CMIP6 to this. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124, 7930–7950. The monthly-mean cloud fraction, ice water content and liquid water content variables in all experiments are scaled by a model-dependent factor that ranges between 0.68 and 1.5 to ensure that TOA LW outgoing flux is approximately 240.2 W m−2 in the control experiment, in line with TOA observations (Loeb et al., 2018). Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Models with diagnostics available on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) up until 13 May 2020 have been analysed. Efficacy of climate forcings in PDRMIP models, J. Geophys. Rev. O'Connor, F. M., Abraham, N. L., Dalvi, M., Folberth, G., Griffiths, P., Hardacre, C., Johnson, B. T., Kahana, R., Keeble, J., Kim, B., Morgenstern, O., Mulcahy, J. P., Richardson, M. G., Robertson, E., Seo, J., Shim, S., Teixeira, J. C., Turnock, S., Williams, J., Wiltshire, A., and Zeng, G.: Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1, Atmos. 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Allen, R., Amiri-Farahani, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Smith, C., Shindell, D., (2016), and Smith et al. Figure 4Global-mean change in ISCCP-simulated cloud fraction (clisccp) in CTP-τ space (first column) and consequential changes in SW (second column), LW (third column) and net (fourth column) radiation when convoluted with the ISCCP cloud kernel. and Aerosols in MRI-ESM2.0, Prog. For the LWP adjustment we use a relationship obtained in Gryspeerdt et al. S., Sherwood, S., Stevens, B., and Zhang, X.: Clouds and Aerosols, in: ERF_reg is calculated from each model's CMIP abrupt-4xCO2 experiment by regressing the annual temperature anomaly compared to the same model's pre-industrial control (piControl) against the annual TOA energy imbalance anomaly ΔN in Eq. (1) and finding the intercept at ΔT=0, as in Gregory et al. H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., It may therefore be the case that differences are due to a change in tropopause height in greenhouse-gas-driven experiments (Santer et al., 2003). Soc., 98, 95–105. S., Yang, Y., Yoon, J.-H., Zelinka, M. D., Zender, C. S., Zeng, X., Zhang, climate models, Science, 361, 326–327, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau1864, 2018. a, Stjern, C. W., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Ø., Geophys. Radiative forcing, a measure, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), of the influence a given climatic factor has on the amount of downward-directed radiant energy impinging upon Earth’s surface. Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., KA provided model results of effective radiative forcing and effective climate sensitivity. 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Discuss., Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Lee, W. G., and Zickfeld, K.: Model. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a, Chung, E.-S. and Soden, B. J.: An assessment of methods for computing radiative Model Dev., 12, 4823–4873. Chevallier, M., Colin, J., Guérémy, J.-F., Michou, M., Moine, M.-P., Nabat, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., Hodnebrog, O., Kasoar, M., Shine, K. P., Cook, J., Highwood, E. J., and Joshi, M. M.: An alternative to We determine a multi-model mean anthropogenic ERF of 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2 for 1850–2014. A warming land surface and troposphere leads to a negative adjustment (more outgoing LW radiation to space) that is partially offset by increased tropospheric water vapour (analogous to the water vapour feedback). P. J., and Strand, W. G.: The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2), Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of Higher Climate Durachta, J., Gauthier, P. 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Model Dev., 9, 3447–3460. This highlights the likelihood that the inclusion of more models submitting results to RFMIP would extend the CMIP6 range of aerosol forcing, but the same may also have been true in CMIP5, where only a subset of models performed the sstClimAerosol experiment. MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to The main constituents of anthropogenic ERF are a positive forcing from greenhouse gases and a partially offsetting negative forcing from aerosols. Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., and Zwiers, F.: PDRMIP: A precipitation driver Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition-4.0 Data Product, J. (W m-2) 4×CO 2 +7.98 ±0.39 [Present-day CO 2] [+1.81] Xavier, P. K.: The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and Phys., 19, 15415–15429, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15415-2019, 2019. a, Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang, It is not a perfect measure, as it includes changes in snow and ice cover over land and any biophysical response, as both changes in land surface temperatures and surface properties can affect snow cover. Frame, D.: A real-time Global Warming Index, Sci. Change, 7, 331–335. Part of this material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation (cooperative agreement no. 1852977). All forcing components that are not perturbed in a particular experiment remain at pre-industrial (year 1850) values, and “present day” is defined as year 2014 conditions. Belamari, S., Berthet, S., Cassou, C., Cattiaux, J., Deshayes, J., Douville, For this reason, we discard the first few years of model output where the stratosphere is still adjusting to a forcing for the 4×CO2, well-mixed greenhouse gas (WMGHG) and anthropogenic forcing experiments (Table 1). confirm need for urgent mitigation, Nat. The instantaneous radiative forcing and cloud adjustments are generally the largest sources of inter-model spread in the forcing component in climate models. K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the For models not including ice cloud nucleation, the LW cloud adjustment for aerosols is estimated from the change in cloud radiative effect (CRE; difference between all-sky and clear-sky fluxes). C., Zhang, K., Zhang, Y., Zheng, X., Zhou, T., and Zhu, Q.: The DOE E3SM Dynam., 41, Zhang, S.: Efficacy of climate forcings, J. Geophys. A typical value of λ, 0.8 K/(W/m ), gives an increase in global temperature of about 1.6 K above the 1750 reference temperature due to the increase in CO 2 over that time (2… model under abruptly quadrupled CO, Boucher, O., Randall, D., Artaxo, P., Bretherton, C., Feingold, G., Forster, C. A., and Tang, Y.: Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in There is also a substantial adjustment arising from WMGHG forcing, and again this is mostly driven by stratospheric cooling implied by the observation that ERF and RF are approximately equal. Distribution of the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of well mixed atmospheric methane from 1750 to 2011 (units: W m −2). B. Durachta, J., Gauthier, P. P. G., Ginoux, P., Golaz, J.-C., Griffies, S. M., Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1205, in review, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, Tokarska, K. B., Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Lee, W. G., and Zickfeld, K.: Smith, R. S., Swaminathan, R., Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G., and Zerroukat, M.: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00721.1, 2012. a, Held, I. M. and Soden, B. J.: Water vapor feedback and global warming, Annu. One factor may be the inclusion or exclusion of stratospheric chemistry, which affects ozone formation. Table 2 shows the ERF diagnosed from each forcing and each model using the climatological-SST method, and Fig. 1 shows the ERF, diagnosed IRF and adjustments from each RFMIP Tier 1 experiment. Both physics versions are analysed in this paper and treated as separate models. A., McClean, J. L., McCoy, R. B., Neale, R. B., Price, S. F., Qian, Y., In Sect. 5.3.4 we compare other methods to estimate ERFari and ERFaci. Flynn, C. M. and Mauritsen, T.: On the climate sensitivity and historical warming evolution in recent coupled model ensembles, Atmos. G., Cheng, Y., Clune, T. L., Cook, B., Cruz, C. A., Genio, A. D. D., This is less than the anthropogenic ERF in AR5 for 1850–2011 of 2.24 W m−2 (Myhre et al., 2013; although this figure has a wide uncertainty range), and extrapolating trends forward would suggest an anthropogenic ERF of around 2.4 W m−2 from AR5 for 1850–2014. Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, Armour, K.: Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of They also do not account for changes in land or solar activity. Meteorol. File; File history; File usage; Metadata; Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 609 × 376 pixels. Lett., 39, L09712. Clim. r CMIP5 included experiments for present-day (year 2000) all-aerosol and sulfate-only forcing (Zelinka et al., 2014; CMIP5 experiment labels sstClimAerosol and sstClimSulfate) and 4×CO2 forcing (sstClim4xCO2; Andrews et al., 2012; Kamae and Watanabe, 2012) with respect to a pre-industrial baseline with climatological SSTs and sea ice distributions (sstClim).

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